Antiviral drugs are totally inadequate,
claims best-selling author
Scientist’s chilling warning
over flu pandemic
By Iain Harrison
AN AWARD-WINNING scientist claims the drug most of the world is counting on to combat a potential bird flu pandemic could prove ineffective.
Dr Ken McClure, now a best-selling author, investigated what would happen if a deadly flu virus was unleashed for his novel The Lazarus Strain.
The former molecular geneticist with the Medical Research Council concluded that the consequences of a global outbreak would be devastating.
He claims this is partly because the antiviral drug being stockpiled as the first line of defence against avian flu is inadequate.
Unaffected by drugs
Dr McClure is not alone in his thinking. Doctors in Vietnam have also found evidence that the avian virus can mutate into a form unaffected by antiviral drugs.
“The threat of an outbreak involving mutated avian flu is very real but the UK has decided to rely on Tamiflu rather than develop a vaccination,” Dr McClure warned.
“Unlike antibiotics, which only act against bacteria, antiviral drugs are not that effective and, crucially, they have to be taken at exactly the right time — at the very onset of symptoms, not too early, not too late.
“Common sense would suggest this is not going to happen in practice.
“Anyone who sneezes will demand the drug while anyone who waits until they are sure they have flu will be beyond saving.”
Dr McClure hit upon his theory after studying an experiment, carried out by a team of scientists in America, which recreated the 1918 Spanish flu virus.
Virus resurrected
Boffins from the US Armed Forces Institute of Pathology resurrected the virus from dead bodies that had been discovered in permafrost in Alaska.
“I couldn’t understand why anyone would want to recreate a deadly virus that no longer exists and the scientific community took the same line.
“The researchers said it would help them better understand the flu virus, how to deal with it and how to create vaccines for it.
“But what was really frightening was just how similar the nucleic acid sequence of the 1918 virus was to modern-day bird flu H5N1.
“Only a small mutation would be necessary to create the pandemic strain all over again.
“But until H5N1 mutates to become transmissible from person to person you cannot design an effective treatment for it.”
The makers of Tamiflu, Roche Pharmaceuticals, refuted Dr McClure’s claims, insisting the drug is designed to be effective against all strains of influenza.
Infection
“Tamiflu targets the neuraminidase protein, present on the surface of all known influenza viruses, including the currently circulating H5N1 avian influenza strain,” a spokeswoman said.
“The neuraminidase protein has a crucial role to play in the spread of infection within and between individuals.
“By blocking this protein, Tamiflu reduces the severity of influenza symptoms and prevents the spread to others.
“A large body of evidence demonstrates the efficacy of Tamiflu in treatment and prevention of seasonal influenza and early clinical case reports and laboratory studies have shown it is effective against H5N1.
“It is important to recognise, however, that in order for patients to have the best chance of experiencing the benefits of Tamiflu it must be administered within 48 hours of symptom onset or exposure to infection.
“Review of this data has resulted in the World Health Organisation recommendation that governments stockpile antiviral drugs in preparation for the imminent threat of an influenza pandemic.
Challenges
“Although Roche recognises vaccines have an important role to play in preventing infection and reducing health consequences of an influenza pandemic, because a vaccine must be specifically matched to the strain of virus that is circulating it is estimated that its development would require at least six months, by which time the pandemic would be very widespread.
“Given these challenges, experts agree that in the absence of a vaccine, antiviral drugs will be the main medical intervention for reducing illness and death.”
The Scottish Executive has stockpiled around 1.3 million doses of Tamiflu, enough to treat one in four of the population.
Nicola Sturgeon, the cabinet secretary for health and wellbeing, said it is at the forefront of preparations for pandemic flu.
She added, “Until the pandemic flu strain is identified, it will not be possible to produce a vaccine.
“It could then take up to six months to produce. Antivirals are likely to be our first line of defence against pandemic flu.
“Scientific experts have informed us that the most effective treatment against pandemic flu, until we can create a vaccine specific to the pandemic influenza strain when it emerges, will be the use of antiviral drugs.
The Lazarus Strain (published by Allison & Busby, priced £9.99,
ISBN 0749080159) is released on June 25.
